Y12W28VC Voting, and what it doesn't tell you

The folk theory of how voting works goes like this. Citizens examine the issues. They form views. They evaluate candidates against their views. They vote accordingly. When political scientists have studied whether voters actually behave this way, the answer has consistently been: not really. This week's article examines the gap between how we think we vote and how we actually vote — and what it means for how you should think about your own vote.

Core Vocabulary

accountability

/əˌkaʊntəˈbɪləti/|ac·count·a·bil·i·ty

noun

being answerable for actions

Word Breakdown: account- (reckon) + -ability (quality of)

Word family: accountable (adj.)

Synonyms: responsibility, answerability, liability

Collocations: electoral accountability, public accountability

In the articleThe accountability signal is there, but it's noisy and often aimed at the wrong things.

incumbent

/ɪnˈkʌmbənt/|in·cum·bent

noun

current holder of office

Word Breakdown: in- (in/on) + cumbent (lying, Latin cumbere)

Word family: incumbency (v./n.)

Synonyms: officeholder, holder, current

Collocations: incumbent president, incumbent advantage

In the articleWhat democracy actually does, reliably, is allow incumbent parties to be removed from power.

retrospective

/ˌretrəˈspektɪv/|re·tro·spec·tive

adjective

looking backward

Word Breakdown: retro- (back) + -spective (looking, Latin spectare)

Word family: retrospection (n.)

Synonyms: backward-looking, reflective, past-focused

Collocations: retrospective voting, retrospective judgment

In the articleRetrospective voting — rewarding or punishing incumbents based on recent performance — is perhaps the most studied model.

ideological

/ˌaɪdiəˈlɑːdʒɪkəl/|i·de·o·log·i·cal

adjective

based on systematic belief

Word Breakdown: ideo- (idea) + -logical (study of)

Word family: ideology (v./n.)

Synonyms: doctrinal, theoretical, philosophical

Collocations: ideological commitment, ideological divide

In the articleTheir book draws heavily on earlier research, particularly the foundational work of the American political scientist Philip Converse, whose 1964 paper

pragmatic

/præɡˈmætɪk/|prag·mat·ic

adjective

practical rather than theoretical

Word Breakdown: prag- (deed) + -matic (relating to)

Word family: pragmatism (v./n.)

Synonyms: practical, realistic, results-focused

Collocations: pragmatic approach, pragmatic consideration

In the articleThe pragmatic voter who simply tries to get good policy outcomes faces enormous barriers.

motivated

/ˈmoʊtɪveɪtɪd/|mo·ti·vat·ed

adjective

driven by specific interests

Word Breakdown: motiv- (move) + -ated (caused to be)

Word family: motivate (v./n.)

Synonyms: driven, inspired, impelled

Collocations: politically motivated, motivated reasoning

In the articleMotivated reasoning leads people to accept evidence that confirms their partisan identity and reject evidence that challenges it.

empirical

/ɪmˈpɪrɪkəl/|em·pir·i·cal

adjective

based on observation

Word Breakdown: empir- (experience) + -ical (relating to)

Word family: empiricism (v./n.)

Synonyms: observational, evidence-based, experimental

Collocations: empirical evidence, empirical research

In the articleThe empirical case for voter rationality is not strong.

uninformed

/ˌʌnɪnˈfɔːrmd/|un·in·formed

adjective

lacking information

Word Breakdown: un- (not) + informed

Word family: inform (v./n.)

Synonyms: ignorant, unaware, uneducated

Collocations: uninformed decision, uninformed voter

In the articleThe uninformed voter is not irrational — rational ignorance is the economically sensible response to the tiny probability that a single vote will be decisive.

Technical Terms

retrospective voting

/ˌretrəˈspektɪv/|re·tro·spec·tive

noun

voting based on past performance rather than policy preference

Synonyms: similar to voting based on past performance rather than policy preference, related concept, voting based on past performance rather than policy preference

Example: Understanding retrospective voting is crucial in this context.

In the articleVoting, and what it doesn't tell you Here's the folk theory of how elections are supposed to work.

rational ignorance

/ˈræʃənəl ˈɪɡnərəns/|ra·tion·al ig·no·rance

noun

Downs's concept — the choice not to become informed when individual vote has little effect

Synonyms: similar to Downs's concept — the choice not to become informed when individual vote has little effect, related concept, Downs's concept — the choice not to become informed when individual vote has little effect

Example: Understanding rational ignorance is crucial in this context.

In the articleWhat democracy doesn't reliably deliver is informed rule by a rational public responding to substantive evidence.

partisan identity

/ˈpɑːtɪzən aɪˈdentɪti/|par·ti·san i·den·ti·ty

noun

identification with a political party that shapes perception

Synonyms: similar to identification with a political party that shapes perception, related concept, identification with a political party that shapes perception

Example: Understanding partisan identity is crucial in this context.

In the articleVoters largely vote on group identity, not on policy.

motivated reasoning

/ˈmoʊtɪveɪtɪd/|mo·ti·vat·ed

noun

reasoning directed toward preferred conclusions

Synonyms: similar to reasoning directed toward preferred conclusions, related concept, reasoning directed toward preferred conclusions

Example: Understanding motivated reasoning is crucial in this context.

In the articleThis matters because it suggests that the Achen-Bartels critique isn't about voters being fundamentally incapable of substantive political reasoning.

folk theory of democracy

/fəʊk ˈθɪəri əv dɪˈmɒkrəsi/|folk the·o·ry of de·moc·ra·cy

noun

the common account of how voters decide, often inaccurate

Synonyms: similar to the common account of how voters decide, often inaccurate, related concept, the common account of how voters decide, often inaccurate

Example: Understanding folk theory of democracy is crucial in this context.

In the articleHere's the folk theory of how elections are supposed to work.

Figurative Phrases

at the ballot box

in voting — idiom; the ballot box as metonymy for voting

Etymology/Type: Metonymy; the ballot box is the physical container for votes and stands for the entire act of voting and democratic participation.

Synonyms: when voting, in the polling booth, in the act of casting a vote

Example: Many of the students would be eligible to express their views at the ballot box for the first time in the coming election.

In the articleThe accountability signal is there, but it's noisy and often aimed at the wrong things.

throw the bums out

vote incumbents out — idiom; colloquial, figurative

Etymology/Type: Idiom combining physical ejection with contempt; "throw" means to forcefully eject, and "bums" is contemptuous slang - applied to voting out disreputable or failed incumbents.

Synonyms: vote out the incumbents, remove those in power, kick them out at the election

Example: The mood in the community had shifted — people wanted to throw the bums out and start fresh with new leadership.

In the articleIn fact, Achen and Bartels document, voters often punish governments for events that are clearly beyond the government's control.

vote with your feet

leave rather than vote — idiom; no literal voting by walking

Etymology/Type: Idiom from physical movement and protest; the act of walking away physically substitutes for or expresses a vote or preference, used when people leave rather than formally object.

Synonyms: leave rather than voice your protest, show preference through action, walk away instead of staying

Example: Students who were dissatisfied with the timetable voted with their feet by choosing different electives the following year.

In the articleThey weight this evidence and vote accordingly.

the silent majority

uninvolved but assumed-supportive public — idiom; not literally silent

Etymology/Type: Idiom referring to a large group assumed to hold views but not express them publicly; "silent" means they do not speak publicly, coined during Nixon era.

Synonyms: the quiet majority, those who don't speak up, the non-vocal mainstream

Example: The organisers hoped the silent majority would turn up to vote even though they hadn't been visible in the online debate.

In the articleHere's the folk theory of how elections are supposed to work.

cast your vote

submit your ballot — idiom; 'cast' figurative

Etymology/Type: Idiom from casting (throwing or moulding); "cast" originally meant to throw (as in casting a fishing line or fishing net) - applied to submitting your ballot.

Synonyms: submit your vote, place your ballot, make your selection

Example: She encouraged every student in the year group to cast their vote in the school council election.

In the articleThe question worth carrying, especially as you think about your own voting: When you cast a vote, what are you actually voting for — the specific pol

swing voter

one who changes between elections — idiom; 'swing' figurative motion

Etymology/Type: Metaphor from pendulum motion; a swing moves back and forth between two points - applied to voters who change their party allegiance between elections.

Synonyms: undecided voter, persuadable voter, floating voter

Example: In close elections, campaigns focus intensely on the swing voter — the person whose mind isn't made up.

In the articleThe book pulled together decades of research on voter behaviour and argued, bluntly, that the folk theory of democracy is empirically wrong in its central claims.

Confusing Words

accountability vs answerability

These near-synonyms both relate to being answerable for actions, but accountability is about responsibility for consequences, while answerability is about the obligation to explain or justify.

  • Accountability is responsibility for one's actions and their consequences — the obligation to answer for what you did and face consequences if things went wrong. Political accountability (often via voting) means leaders can lose their jobs if voters judge their record poorly. Accountability emphasizes consequences and judgment.
  • Answerability is the obligation to explain, justify, or account for decisions and actions — to provide reasons and answer for the logic behind what was done. Someone is answerable if they must explain their choices, but not necessarily if they face consequences. You can answer for something without facing punishment for it.

Accountability emphasizes *consequences*: Did you face judgment or penalty? Answerability emphasizes *explanation*: Did you have to justify or explain it?

retrospective vs prospective

These are opposites: retrospective looks back at the past, while prospective looks forward to the future.

  • Retrospective means looking backward at the past — evaluating what has already happened. Retrospective voting means voters judge leaders based on their record: Did the economy improve? Was the government competent? Did they keep promises? It's about reviewing past performance to decide whether to keep or replace leaders.
  • Prospective means looking forward to the future — evaluating what is expected or hoped to happen. Prospective voting means voters choose leaders based on what they promise to do going forward: Which vision do I prefer? Whose future agenda aligns with my values? It's about what you hope they'll accomplish next.

Retrospective = judging the *past* (what already happened). Prospective = judging the *future* (what might happen).

ideological vs pragmatic

These represent two different approaches to decision-making: ideological means guided by principles and beliefs, while pragmatic means guided by practical results and what works.

  • Ideological leadership or decision-making is driven by consistent principles, beliefs, or a clear vision of how things should be. An ideological leader sticks to their principles even when it's costly or unpopular. They ask: 'What is right?' and 'What aligns with my core beliefs?' and commit to that path regardless of short-term consequences.
  • Pragmatic leadership or decision-making is driven by practical effectiveness and what actually works in reality — getting things done, solving problems, achieving results. A pragmatic leader asks: 'What will work?' and 'What will actually solve this problem?' and shifts tactics if the current approach isn't delivering results, even if it means compromising on principles.

Ideological = 'What's *right* according to my principles?' Pragmatic = 'What *works* to get results?'