Y11W17WR How humans actually price risk

Observational
The writing prompt

Examine three risks where your own felt response is out of proportion to the probability, and reflect on what the mismatch reveals about what you actually fear.

1Retrieval check

Q1.What does Slovic’s research show about how humans assess risk?

  • ABy calculating probabilities carefully
  • BBy how the risk feels — dreadful, uncontrollable, catastrophic
  • CBy consulting experts first
  • DPurely from personal experience

Q2.Why does flying feel riskier than driving, despite the statistics?

  • APlanes crash more often
  • BMedia coverage amplifies vivid, rare risks and under-covers common ones, shaping perception systematically
  • CFlying is actually more dangerous
  • DDriving produces no risk at all
Show answer key

Q1 → B. By how the risk feels — dreadful, uncontrollable, catastrophic.The affect heuristic — emotional response substituting for calculation — drives most everyday risk assessment, especially under uncertainty.

Q2 → B. Media coverage amplifies vivid, rare risks and under-covers common ones, shaping perception systematically.The felt response is shaped by vividness and coverage, not by base rates — which is why the numbers and the feeling come apart.

2Prompt deconstruction

Command verb
EXAMINE — diagnose three cases, don’t generalise
You pick
three risks: one you fear more than the numbers warrant, one less, one about right
Goal
trace each felt response to its source; distinguish bias from genuine signal (reversibility, consent, who bears the cost)
Must reference
Slovic’s research AND the affect heuristic

3Pick nudge

Which risk response best shows the relationship between your feelings and the numbers?

Fear > numbers
Flying, sharks, terrorism, public speaking
Fear < numbers
Driving, sun exposure, sedentary lifestyle, sugar
Fear ≈ numbers
Something your response actually tracks well

4Planner — for each of your picks

Risk
Felt response vs. actual probability
#1
#2
#3

5Sentence stems

  • I noticed that ___ when ___.
  • The specific moment it stood out was ___.
  • Before paying attention, I had been assuming ___.
  • [Researcher’s] finding that ___ captures what I saw, because ___.
  • The pattern across my cases is ___.
  • What this tells me about [wider topic] is ___.

6Exemplar paragraph (not about this article)

(1) Three risks: (1-a) Flying — I feel tense on every takeoff, though the numbers show it’s safer per kilometre than driving to the airport. (2) The feeling is about loss of control; the article’s ‘dreadful/uncontrollable’ category fits. (3) (1-b) Sun exposure — I under-fear it, because the damage is invisible and delayed. (4) The affect heuristic doesn’t produce a warning signal without vivid imagery. (5) (1-c) Crossing a busy road — my felt response matches the actual variation in risk, because I’ve been calibrated by near-misses. The pattern: my fear tracks reversibility and vividness, not probability. Slovic’s framing fits what I noticed.

What this paragraph does, move by move

  1. Establishes the first risk and its probability mismatch.
  2. Explains the emotional source of the fear.
  3. Adds a second risk where the writer under-fears the danger.
  4. Explains why the affect heuristic misses that risk.
  5. Adds a calibrated case and lands the pattern with Slovic’s framing.