Y11W03VC Confidence and competence on different roads

You've probably come across the idea, maybe as a meme. The person who is bad at something doesn't know it. The person who is good at it doesn't know that either. Confidence is inversely correlated with competence. The idea is called the Dunning-Kruger effect. This week's article looks at what the original research actually found — which is more interesting, and much less convenient, than the version that went viral.

Core Vocabulary

inversely

/ɪnˈvɜːsli/|in·verse·ly

adverb

In a way that is opposite in direction or relation; as one quantity increases, another decreases in a corresponding manner.

Word Breakdown: From Latin "inversus" (turned upside down) + -ly (adverbial suffix). In- (not) + versus (turned).

Word family: inverse (adj/n), inversely (adv), inversion (n), invert (v)

Synonyms: oppositely, conversely, in reverse proportion, reciprocally

Collocations: inversely proportional, inversely related, inversely correlated, inversely affects

Example: Test anxiety is inversely related to exam performance; as one increases, the other typically decreases.

In the articleConfidence is inversely correlated with competence.

rendered

/ˈrendəd/|ren·dered

verb (past tense)

Expressed, depicted, or presented in a particular form, style, or medium.

Word Breakdown: From Old French "rendre" (to give back, deliver), from Latin "reddere" (to return).

Word family: render (v), rendered (adj), rendering (n), renderer (n)

Synonyms: depicted, presented, expressed, portrayed, translated

Collocations: rendered invalid, rendered helpless, rendered as, rendered in, rendered obsolete

Example: The Dunning-Kruger effect is rendered visible through the inverted U-shaped curve in competence ratings.

In the articleWhat the internet version gets wrong The popular version of Dunning-Kruger is usually rendered as a specific graph — a line that rises steeply from low to moderate competence (confidence high at zero knowledge, dropping sharply as you learn enough to realise you know nothing, then rising again as you become expert).

asymmetric

/ˌeɪsɪˈmetrɪk/|a·sym·met·ric

adjective

Lacking symmetry; having unequal or unbalanced sides, parts, or relationships.

Word Breakdown: From Greek "a-" (without) + "symmetria" (symmetry, proportion). Prefix a- means "not".

Word family: asymmetry (n), asymmetrical (adj), asymmetrically (adv), symmetry (n), symmetric (adj)

Synonyms: unbalanced, lopsided, unequal, imbalanced, one-sided

Collocations: asymmetric relationship, asymmetric information, asymmetric distribution, asymmetric warfare

Example: The Dunning-Kruger effect demonstrates an asymmetric pattern: the competence-confidence gap is much larger at low skill levels.

In the articleWhat's asymmetric is the gap between their self-rating and their actual ranking — the incompetent are far from accurate, the competent are close to it.

calibrate

/ˈkælɪbreɪt/|cal·i·brate

verb

To adjust, set, or check an instrument or person's judgment to ensure accuracy; to align perception with reality.

Word Breakdown: From French "calibre" (diameter of a gun barrel), used metaphorically for precision and accuracy.

Word family: calibrate (v), calibrated (adj), calibration (n), calibrator (n), uncalibrated (adj)

Synonyms: adjust, fine-tune, align, attune, regulate

Collocations: calibrate accuracy, calibrate confidence, calibrated judgment, well-calibrated, poorly calibrated

Example: Teachers must calibrate their assessment of student abilities regularly to avoid bias and ensure fair evaluation.

artefact

/ˈɑːtɪfækt/|ar·te·fact

noun

An object made or shaped by human craft; a spurious finding in research caused by the method rather than the true effect.

Word Breakdown: From Latin "arte" (by skill) + "factum" (made). Art- means "skill" and -fact means "made".

Word family: artifact (variant spelling), artefactual (adj), artificial (adj), artificer (n)

Synonyms: object, relic, remnant, product, by-product

Collocations: archaeological artefact, research artefact, cultural artefact, methodological artefact

Example: Some early Dunning-Kruger replications suffered from research artefacts; careful experimental design was needed to confirm the genuine effect.

In the articleThe critics' conclusion: some of what Dunning-Kruger describes is real, but a significant portion of the apparent effect is statistical artefact that would show up even if everyone had perfect self-insight about how variable their performance was.

corollary

/ˈkɒrəleri/ or /kəˈrɒləri/|cor·ol·lar·y

noun

A conclusion that follows naturally from another statement or fact already established; a logical consequence.

Word Breakdown: From Latin "corollarium" (small gift, tip). In mathematics, it denotes something that follows naturally from a theorem.

Word family: corollary (n), corollaries (plural), correlate (v), correlation (n)

Synonyms: consequence, inference, deduction, implication, follow-on

Collocations: logical corollary, natural corollary, corollary of, direct corollary

Example: A corollary of metacognitive awareness is that experts often underestimate how much domain knowledge they actually possess.

In the articleThis has a practical corollary that most of the pop-psychology treatments miss.

filtered

/ˈfɪltəd/|fil·tered

adjective/verb (past)

Passed through a filter to remove unwanted elements; processed to select only certain information.

Word Breakdown: From Old French "filtrer", likely from Medieval Latin "filtrum" (felt used as a filter).

Word family: filter (n/v), filtered (adj), filtering (n), filtration (n), unfiltered (adj)

Synonyms: screened, sieved, strained, purified, selected

Collocations: filtered information, filtered results, filtered feedback, filtered perception, filtered data

Example: Novices often have filtered feedback from their performance; they notice successes but dismiss failures as bad luck rather than lack of skill.

In the articleIt means that the voices around you who rate your work as good or poor are filtered through their own competence.

paralysed

/ˈpærəlaɪzd/|par·a·lysed

adjective/verb (past)

Unable to move or act; rendered powerless or incapable of functioning (British spelling).

Word Breakdown: From Greek "para-" (beside, beyond) + "lysis" (loosening, dissolution). Related to Greek "paraluesthai" (to disable).

Word family: paralyse (v), paralysed (adj), paralysis (n), paralyzing (adj), unparalysed (adj)

Synonyms: immobilized, disabled, incapacitated, frozen, helpless

Collocations: paralysed by fear, partially paralysed, emotionally paralysed, decision paralysed

Example: Experts may be paralysed by awareness of their knowledge gaps; they recognise so much that they doubt their competence.

In the articleThe solution isn't to become more humble about everything — that just produces paralysed people who can't act.

Technical Terms

Dunning-Kruger effect

/ˈdʌnɪŋ ˈkruːɡər ɪˈfɛkt/|Dun·ning-Kru·ger ef·fect

noun phrase

the tendency for low-skill individuals to overrate and high-skill individuals to underrate their own performance

Synonyms: illusory superiority, competence blindness, metacognitive failure

Collocations: exhibit the Dunning-Kruger effect, Dunning-Kruger effect in beginners, Dunning-Kruger phenomenon

Example: New drivers who feel fully competent after just a few lessons may be experiencing the Dunning-Kruger effect — their limited experience prevents them from recognising how much they do not yet know.

In the articleThe idea is usually called the Dunning-Kruger effect, and it comes from a 1999 paper by two psychologists at Cornell, David Dunning and Justin Kruger.

regression to the mean

/rɪˈɡrɛʃ(ə)n tə ðə miːn/|re·gres·sion to the mean

noun phrase

statistical tendency for extreme values to be followed by values closer to the average

Synonyms: statistical reversion, mean reversion, regression effect

Collocations: regression to the mean predicts, account for regression to the mean, ignore regression to the mean

Example: A student who scored unusually high on one test and then returned to their normal score on the next may have experienced regression to the mean, not a genuine decline in ability.

In the articleTheir argument, put simply: most of what Dunning and Kruger observed can be explained by a statistical phenomenon called regression to the mean, plus the natural tendency for most people to rate themselves as slightly above average.

above-average effect

/əˌbʌv ˈævərɪdʒ ɪˈfɛkt/|a·bove-av·er·age ef·fect

noun phrase

tendency for most people to rate themselves as better than average

Synonyms: illusory superiority, better-than-average effect, self-enhancement bias

Collocations: demonstrate the above-average effect, above-average effect in self-assessment, above-average illusion

Example: When surveyed, the majority of drivers rated themselves above average in skill — a statistical impossibility that neatly demonstrates the above-average effect.

In the articlePeople with very low skill, therefore, face a double curse: they do the task poorly, and they lack the meta-cognitive knowledge that would let them notice they're doing it poorly.

meta-cognitive knowledge

/ˌmetə kɒɡnɪtɪv ˈnɒlɪdʒ/|me·ta-cog·ni·tive knowl·edge

noun phrase

Knowledge about one's own thinking — knowing what you know, what you do not know and how accurately you can judge your own performance.

Word Breakdown: meta- (about or beyond) + cognitive (relating to thinking) + knowledge

Word family: metacognition (n.), metacognitive (adj.), cognition (n.)

Synonyms: self-knowledge, metacognition, awareness of thinking

Collocations: lack meta-cognitive knowledge, develop meta-cognitive knowledge, accurate meta-cognitive judgement

Example: A student with strong meta-cognitive knowledge can tell when they genuinely understand a concept and when they are only familiar with it.

In the articlePeople with very low skill, therefore, face a double curse: they do the task poorly, and they lack the meta-cognitive knowledge that would let them notice they're doing it poorly.

Figurative Phrases

take away

to draw a lesson or conclusion

Etymology/Type: non-literal, nothing is physically taken

Synonyms: draw a lesson from, come away with, extract a conclusion

Example: The key thing to take away from this research is not that overconfidence is universal, but that it is most acute precisely where accurate feedback is least available.

In the articleThe useful thing to take away isn't the meme, and isn't the pure critique either.

punchy narrative

a concise, forceful story

Etymology/Type: figurative use of 'punchy', suggesting impact

Synonyms: crisp story, striking account, compressed narrative

Example: The research was nuanced and full of qualifications, but the journalist distilled it into a punchy narrative that could be shared — and misunderstood — in a single line.

In the articleA careful, bounded finding gets compressed into a punchy narrative.

running blind

acting without needed information

Etymology/Type: metaphorical, not literal blindness

Synonyms: operating in the dark, flying blind, acting without information

Example: Without reliable feedback on how others perceived her performance, she was effectively running blind — unable to calibrate what she needed to change or improve.

In the articleIn domains where feedback is scarce — many interpersonal skills, much of management, most of parenting, significant parts of professional life — you're running somewhat blind.

a mixed signal

ambiguous information

Etymology/Type: figurative, not literal signalling

Synonyms: contradictory message, ambiguous sign, confusing indicator

Example: His encouraging words delivered in a flat, disengaged tone sent a mixed signal that left his students uncertain whether their work was genuinely progressing.

In the articleA boss who doesn't manage well telling you your work is excellent is giving you a mixed signal.

flipped a real finding

reversed or inverted

Etymology/Type: figurative use of 'flipped'

Synonyms: reversed an actual result, inverted a genuine insight, distorted a real discovery

Example: The popular claim that we only use ten percent of our brains has flipped a real finding about neural efficiency into a persistent and misleading myth.

In the articleThe popular meme has flipped a real finding into a punchier and somewhat inaccurate story.

goes viral

spreads quickly through culture

Etymology/Type: metaphor from disease transmission

In the articleThe narrative goes viral.

Confusing Words

inversely vs conversely

Both words signal a kind of opposition, but they describe very different types — one mathematical and proportional, the other logical and propositional.

  • inversely — in a proportional relationship where one variable increases as another decreases, or vice versa. Confidence and competence are inversely related in early learning: the less you know, the more confident you may feel. The word belongs to the language of measurement and quantity.
  • conversely — from the other direction; restating the same relationship by reversing its terms. Where inversely describes a quantitative correlation, conversely connects two statements: "A implies B; conversely, B implies A." It signals a logical reversal, not a mathematical one.

If describing a proportional relationship between two variables moving in opposite directions, use inversely. If reversing a logical claim or proposition, use conversely.

artefact vs artifact

This is a spelling variant rather than a meaning distinction — both words refer to the same thing, and choosing between them is a matter of convention, not definition.

  • artefact — the preferred British and Australian English spelling. In academic contexts, artefact refers to a physical object made or modified by humans, or to a result produced by the research method rather than by the phenomenon under study — a distortion introduced by measurement.
  • artifact — the preferred American English spelling, used interchangeably with artefact in all senses. In scientific writing, an artifact in data is equally a distortion introduced by the analysis rather than reflecting genuine variation in the subject.

Use artefact for British or Australian audiences; use artifact for American audiences. The meaning is identical in both cases.

corollary vs consequence

Both words describe something that follows from something else, but the type of following is different — one inferential, the other causal.

  • corollary — a logical follow-on that can be deduced from an established principle without additional evidence. If the Dunning-Kruger effect is real, a corollary is that those who know the least are also least equipped to recognise their own ignorance. The connection is one of reasoning.
  • consequence — an actual result or outcome; something that happens as a direct effect of something else. A consequence of the Dunning-Kruger effect might be that overconfident performers receive less useful corrective feedback because they project confidence. The connection is one of causation.

If the relationship is one of logical inference from a principle, use corollary. If the relationship is causal — something that actually happens as a result — use consequence.