Y12W09VC The pre-mortem

Imagine the project you're currently working on. Now imagine it's two years from now and the project has failed spectacularly. Spend a minute working out why. What went wrong? Which risks you're not worrying about now turned out to be the real problem? This week's article examines a specific decision-making technique — developed by a psychologist named Gary Klein — that catches more risks than standard planning, with surprising consistency.

Core Vocabulary

prospective

/prəˈspektɪv/|pros·pec·tive

adj

Looking forward in time; considering what will happen in the future rather than what has already occurred.

Word Breakdown: pro- (forward, Latin) + spect- (look) + -ive (relating to)

Word family: prospect (n.), prospective (adj.), prospectively (adv.)

Synonyms: forward-looking, future-oriented, anticipatory

Collocations: prospective thinking, prospective framework, prospective evaluation

Example: Prospective thinking tends to produce polite approval rather than critical assessment.

In the articleInstead of asking a team to evaluate their plan prospectively (which tends to produce polite approval and anchored thinking), ask them to imagine it has already failed, and then explain why.

catastrophically

/ˌkætəˈstrɒfɪkli/|cat·a·stroph·i·cal·ly

adv

In a way that is extremely disastrous or involves complete failure; far worse than expected.

Word Breakdown: cata- (down, Greek) + strophe- (turn/overturn) + -ically (in the manner of)

Word family: catastrophe (n.), catastrophic (adj.), catastrophically (adv.)

Synonyms: disastrously, devastatingly, terribly

Collocations: failed catastrophically, catastrophically wrong, went catastrophically

Example: When teams imagine a plan failing catastrophically, they surface risks they would otherwise miss.

In the articleImagine it is now two years in the future, and the plan has failed catastrophically.

surfaced

/ˈsɜːfeɪst/|sur·faced

vb | [surfaces, surfaced, surfacing]

Brought to visibility or awareness; emerged or came to the surface from being hidden.

Word family: surface (n. or v.), surfaced (v.), surfacing (v.)

Synonyms: emerged, appeared, revealed

Collocations: surfaced concerns, surfaced risks, surfaced problems

Example: The pre-mortem technique surfaces concerns that would normally remain silent.

In the articleIf the warnings existed before the disaster but were silenced by the social dynamics of a committed team, perhaps they could be surfaced by a small procedural trick.

anchored

/ˈæŋkərd/|an·chored

adj

Fixed or held in place by an initial reference point, making it difficult to adjust thinking or perspective.

Word Breakdown: anch- (anchor, Greek) + -ored (having)

Word family: anchor (n. or v.), anchoring (v.), anchored (adj.)

Synonyms: fixed, locked, moored

Collocations: anchored thinking, anchored beliefs, anchored by

Example: Prospective evaluation produces anchored thinking, where initial plans are difficult to question.

In the articleInstead of asking a team to evaluate their plan prospectively (which tends to produce polite approval and anchored thinking), ask them to imagine it has already failed, and then explain why.

imaginative

/ɪˈmædʒɪnətɪv/|i·mag·i·na·tive

adj

Using mental projection to envision future scenarios; creative in generating possibilities.

Word Breakdown: im- (in, Latin) + agin- (imagine) + -ative (characterized by)

Word family: imagine (v.), imaginative (adj.), imagination (n.)

Synonyms: creative, visionary, inventive

Collocations: imaginative exercise, imaginative thinking, imaginative capacity

Example: The pre-mortem is an imaginative exercise that helps teams see future risks.

In the articleThe question to carry, for any plan important enough to be worth doing at all: If this plan failed two years from now, what would be the most embarrassingly obvious reason—the one you wish, in retrospect, you had taken seriously—and what's stopping you from taking it seriously today?

committed

/kəˈmɪtɪd/|com·mit·ted

adj

Bound to a course of action or position; dedicated or pledged to something.

Word family: commit (v.), committed (adj.), commitment (n.)

Synonyms: dedicated, devoted, pledged

Collocations: committed team, committed to a plan, committed leadership

Example: A committed team may silence concerns about a plan due to social pressure.

In the articleIf the warnings existed before the disaster but were silenced by the social dynamics of a committed team, perhaps they could be surfaced by a small procedural trick.

retrospective

/ˌretrəˈspektɪv/|ret·ro·spec·tive

adj

Looking back at or reviewing past events; considering what has already happened rather than what will happen.

Word Breakdown: re- (back, Latin) + spect- (look) + -ive (relating to)

Word family: retrospect (n.), retrospective (adj.), retrospectively (adv.)

Synonyms: backward-looking, reflective, reviewing

Collocations: retrospective analysis, retrospective view, retrospective judgment

Example: Retrospective thinking comes naturally after disaster, but the pre-mortem brings it forward.

In the articlePeople inside the organisation often even knew those signs were there. But the warnings were rarely voiced clearly in advance, only named later, in the post-mortem, after the disaster.

procedural

/prəˈsiːdʒərəl/|pro·ce·dur·al

adj

Relating to the established method or process for doing something; concerned with formal steps or rules.

Word Breakdown: pro- (forward, Latin) + ced- (go) + -ural (relating to)

Word family: procedure (n.), procedural (adj.), procedurally (adv.)

Synonyms: methodical, systematic, formal

Collocations: procedural trick, procedural approach, procedural step

Example: The pre-mortem works as a procedural trick that removes social barriers to honest feedback.

In the articleKlein's insight was simple. If the warnings existed before the disaster but were silenced by the social dynamics of a committed team, perhaps they could be surfaced by a small procedural trick.

Technical Terms

pre-mortem

/ˌpriːˈmɔːrtəm/|pre·mor·tem

noun

Klein's decision-making technique in which teams imagine a project has failed and work backward to identify what went wrong, surfacing risks that standard prospective planning misses.

Synonyms: imagined failure analysis, retrospective risk identification, failure simulation

Collocations: conduct a pre-mortem, run a pre-mortem, pre-mortem exercise

Example: Before launching the product, the team held a pre-mortem session where they imagined the release had failed and identified critical risks.

In the articleThis small exercise is called a pre-mortem, and it was developed by a research psychologist named Gary Klein.

prospective hindsight

/prəˈspektɪv ˈhɪndsaɪt/|pros·pec·tive·hind·sight

noun

Imagining a future outcome as if it has already happened and then working backward from that imagined future to understand causes.

Synonyms: mental time travel, imagined retrospection, future-past analysis

Collocations: prospective hindsight technique, use prospective hindsight

Example: The consultant taught the team prospective hindsight by asking them to imagine themselves two years in the future, reviewing why the initiative had failed.

In the articleKlein's own later work suggests the technique is most effective when the imagined failure is made concrete. Not "imagine this plan has failed"—but "imagine it's eighteen months from now. You're walking out of a meeting where the senior leadership told you the project is being shut down."

confirmation bias

/kənˌfɜːmeɪʃn ˈbaɪəs/|con·fir·ma·tion·bi·as

noun

The tendency to seek, interpret, and remember information in ways that support existing beliefs while dismissing contradictory evidence.

Synonyms: cognitive bias, selective thinking, belief perseverance

Collocations: confirmation bias leads to, overcome confirmation bias

Example: The team suffered from confirmation bias, focusing only on evidence supporting their plan while ignoring warning signs of failure.

In the articleMost decision-making happens in what he calls System 1—the fast, intuitive, overconfident mode of thinking that generates plans we then become attached to.

planning fallacy

/ˈplænɪŋ ˈfɔːləsi/|plan·ning·fal·la·cy

noun

Kahneman and Tversky's finding that plans systematically underestimate how long things will take and what they will cost.

Synonyms: optimism bias, estimation error, timeline underestimation

Collocations: planning fallacy demonstrates, overcome the planning fallacy

Example: The project fell behind schedule due to planning fallacy—the team had vastly underestimated both the time and resources required.

In the articleBad plans almost always had warning signs before they went wrong. People inside the organisation often even knew those signs were there.

failure mode

/ˈfeɪljər moʊd/|fail·ure·mode

noun

A specific way in which a system, plan, or organization can fail; a particular pathway to breakdown.

Synonyms: failure pathway, breakdown scenario, risk pathway

Collocations: identify failure modes, potential failure mode

Example: The pre-mortem exercise helped the team identify multiple failure modes they had not previously considered, from resource constraints to vendor delays.

In the articleBefore reading any further, spend about a minute listing all the reasons why it failed. What happened? What went wrong?

Figurative Phrases

wheels coming off

Complete system failure or collapse; derived from vehicle mechanics metaphorically applied to any breakdown.

Etymology/Type: Vehicle metaphor; wheels falling off a car is catastrophic—metaphor for a system losing control.

Synonyms: falling apart at the seams, coming undone, going into freefall

Example: Two weeks before the exam, with three assignments overdue, she could feel the wheels coming off her whole semester.

In the articleThe result, when people actually do this, is often startling.

go south

Fail or deteriorate; take a negative direction. The phrase uses directional language figuratively.

Etymology/Type: Directional idiom; south is often associated with decline or problems—"go south" means fail or deteriorate.

Synonyms: go wrong, fall apart, take a bad turn

Example: The group project started going south when two members stopped communicating and missed key deadlines.

In the articleBad plans almost always had warning signs before they went wrong.

blow up

Fail dramatically; experience spectacular failure. Not a literal explosion.

Etymology/Type: Idiom; a literal explosion is sudden and destructive—figuratively, a situation blows up when it fails dramatically.

Synonyms: fall apart dramatically, collapse suddenly, unravel

Example: The presentation blew up when they realised their data had been entered into the wrong columns.

In the articleImagine it is now two years in the future, and the plan has failed catastrophically.

fall apart

Collapse or break down; cease functioning as intended. Figuratively applied to plans and systems.

Etymology/Type: Idiom; physical objects fall apart and break—figuratively, a plan or situation collapses into disorder.

Synonyms: break down, disintegrate, come undone

Example: Without a shared understanding of the brief, the team's plan fell apart at the first review.

In the articleThe mind switches from defence to detective.

see it coming

Anticipate or predict something in advance; recognize a threat before it materializes.

Etymology/Type: Visual metaphor; anticipation is portrayed as literally seeing something approach in advance.

Synonyms: see the warning signs, read the signs early, predict it in advance

Example: Looking back, she could see it coming — the workload had been building for weeks before the crisis hit.

In the articleBefore reading any further, spend about a minute listing all the reasons why it failed.

writing on the wall

Visible warning signs that disaster is coming; derived from biblical prophecy, applied figuratively to any obvious danger.

Etymology/Type: Biblical reference; in Daniel, God writes on a wall as a warning—idiom for visible warning signs.

Synonyms: signs of what's coming, a clear warning, the obvious signal

Example: The writing was on the wall after the first practice run — the presentation needed to be restructured entirely.

In the articleBad plans almost always had warning signs before they went wrong.

Confusing Words

prospective vs. perspective

These paronyms sound similar but mean entirely different things: prospective is about future time, while perspective is about viewpoint.

  • Prospective means forward-looking or concerned with future outcomes — a prospective student is considering attending a university before applying.
  • Perspective means a viewpoint or way of regarding something — from my perspective means from my point of view.

Prospective contains 'pro-' (forward) and relates to future time. Perspective relates to a point of view. If you can replace it with 'viewpoint', use perspective; if it concerns the future, use prospective.

retrospective vs. retrospect

These share the same root but differ in part of speech and usage: retrospective is an adjective or noun for a review, while retrospect is a noun used in the phrase 'in retrospect'.

  • Retrospective is an adjective meaning 'looking backward' or a noun meaning 'a review of past events' — a retrospective analysis of the project shows what went wrong.
  • Retrospect is a noun meaning 'a consideration of the past', used primarily in the fixed phrase 'in retrospect' (meaning 'looking back') — in retrospect, we should have planned better.

Use retrospective when you need an adjective ('retrospective view') or when naming an exhibition/review. Use retrospect only in the phrase 'in retrospect'. When in doubt, try replacing it: 'in retrospect' never changes, but 'retrospective analysis' can replace 'in retrospect' only awkwardly.

procedural vs. procedure

These word-family members differ by part of speech: procedural is an adjective describing something's nature, while procedure is a noun naming the steps themselves.

  • Procedural is an adjective meaning 'relating to or following an established method or process' — the pre-mortem works as a procedural trick that removes social barriers.
  • Procedure is a noun meaning 'the established method or steps for doing something' — follow the procedure exactly as written.

Procedural modifies a noun (procedural error, procedural law); procedure is a noun standing alone. A quick test: if you can add '-ly' to make 'procedurally', you likely need the adjective. If you can say 'follow the [word]', you need procedure.